The short answer is 8 to 12 years. The Mesa answer is often 6 to 8, and the difference is almost entirely maintenance.
Why Mesa is harder on water heaters
Mesa’s water runs roughly 12 to 16 grains per gallon depending on which side of the Eastern Canal you live on. This hard water is one of the biggest factors affecting water heater lifespan in Mesa AZ, which makes regular water heater maintenance in Mesa especially important. Every time that water is heated, calcium and magnesium drop out of solution and settle to the bottom of the tank.
At first, the sediment is loose. Give it a year or two undisturbed and it solidifies into a crust sitting between the burner and the water it is supposed to heat. From there it gets worse in a loop. The burner runs longer, the tank floor overheats, the glass lining develops fine cracks, water reaches the steel underneath, and the tank starts rusting from the inside. By the time you see rusty hot water, the decision has already been made for you.

